Myth:more guns means more crime

An example of anti-CCW propaganda, published by the Brady Campaign.

Every time some jurisdiction in the United States or elsewhere ponders reducing onerous gun laws and allowing more citizens to arm and defend themselves, gun grabbers predict blood in the streets.

Yes, firearms are powerful. But they can be life saving, especially in the hands of law-abiding citizens. We shouldn’t let irrational fears blind us to the data.

The facts

1. In 2004, the National Academy of Sciences reviewed 253 journal articles, 99 books, and 43 government publications evaluating 80 gun-control measures. The researchers could not identify a single gun-control regulation that reduced violent crime, suicide, or accidents. A year earlier, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported on an independent evaluation of firearms and ammunition bans, restrictions on acquisition, waiting periods, registration, licensing, child access prevention laws, and zero tolerance laws. Conclusion: none of the laws had a meaningful impact on gun violence.
2. Between 1973 and 2003 the per capita rate of firearm ownership doubled in the United States. During those same years murder rates dropped by one third. Statistics show that with every 1% increase in legal firearm ownership correlates with a 4.1% decrease in violent crime.
3. The Harvard Journal of Law & Public Policy confirms that reducing gun ownership by law-abiding citizens does nothing to reduce violence worldwide. The study notes that other developed nations such as Norway, Finland, Germany, France and Denmark maintain high rates of gun ownership, yet possess murder rates lower than other developed nations in which gun ownership is much more restricted.
4. Thirty-one American states have chosen to loosen gun control laws and allow law-abiding citizens the right to carry a concealed gun with “shall issue” permits. The anti-gun crowd predicted minor fender-benders exploding into “wild west shoot outs.” Not only has that not happened, but the opposite has happened. On average these “shall issue” states have 19% lower murder rate, 39% lower robbery rates and 24% lower overall violent crime rates than states that forbid their citizens to carry concealed.

Examples

Total crime victims by country

Rank	Country	Rate
1	Australia	30.1%
2	New Zealand	29.4%
3	United Kingdom	26.4%
4	Netherlands	25.2%
5	Sweden	24.7%
6	Italy	24.6%
7	Canada	23.8%
8	Saint Kitts and Nevis	23.2%
9	Malta	23.1%
10	Denmark	23%
11	Poland	22.7%
12	France	21.4%
12	Belgium	21.4%
14	Slovenia	21.2%
15	United States	21.1%
16	Finland	19.1%
17	Austria	18.8%
18	Switzerland	18.2%
19	Portugal	15.5%
20	Japan	15.2%
	Weighted average	22.4%

The table to the right shows people victimized by crime (as a percent of each country's total population). Data refer to people victimized by one or more of 11 crimes recorded in the survey: robbery, burglary, attempted burglary, car theft, car vandalism, bicycle theft, sexual assault, theft from car, theft of personal property, assault and threats.

Australia

In Australia, the government banned almost all firearms in 1996, after a highly publicized shooting. Within 18 months after the ban, armed robberies rose by 73%, unarmed robberies by 28%, kidnappings by 38%, assaults by 17%, and manslaughter by 29%. This was reported on the web site of the Australian Bureau of Statistics in January, 2000.

Canada

Following the enactment of the Canada Firearms Act and subsequent implementation of a national long gun registry, Statistics Canada finds that "Homicides committed with a firearm [are] on the rise since 2002"

England

• After England initiated a ban on handguns a 1998 study by the US Department of Justice found that there were 40% more muggings in England, and burglary rates were almost 100% higher than in the United States. And, counter-intuitively, the rate of crimes using handguns is on the rise. In 1999-2000, crimes using handguns were at a seven-year high. Apparently, criminals were easily able to access guns, but law enforcement officers and law-abiding citizens were not allowed.
• From 1998 through 2008, firearm-related crime and death rates increased an average of 89% in all police areas in England and Wales. One part of the country has seen the problem increase almost seven fold, with the Lancashire district seeing a 598% increase.
• From mid-2008 to mid-2009, the city of London saw a 20% increase in gun crimes and a 20% increase in rapes
• In July 2009, figures compiled from reports released by the European Commission and United Nations showed Britain the most violent country in Europe, with a violent crime rate of 2,034 per 100,000 residents. The same studies showed the US as having a violence rate of 466 — less than a quarter of the British rate — and Canada with a rate of 935.

Europe

Handguns are outlawed in Luxembourg, and gun ownership extremely rare, yet its murder rate is nine times greater than in Germany, which has one of the highest gun ownership rates in Europe. Hungary's murder rate is nearly three times higher than nearby Austria's, but Austria's gun ownership rate is over eight times higher than Hungary's.

	Norway has far and away Western Europe's highest household gun ownership rate (32%), but also its lowest murder rate. The Netherlands, in contrast, has the lowest gun ownership rate in Western Europe (1.9%) ... Yet the Dutch gun murder rate is higher than the Norwegian.
— Harvard Journal of Law & Public Policy

USA

As of late 2010, gun ownership has risen to an all-time high, and violent crime has fallen to a 35-year low. Coinciding with a surge in gun purchases that began shortly before the 2008 elections, violent crime decreased six percent between 2008 and 2009, according to the FBI. This included an eight percent decrease in murder and a nine percent decrease in robbery.

Washington DC

On June 26 2008, by a 5 to 4 decision, the Supreme Court of the United States struck down the 30 year-old Washington D.C. gun ban in the case of District of Columbia, et al. v. Dick Anthony Heller. On Monday, July 20, 2009, the Washington Post reported that homicide rates were down by 17 percent in the first half of 2009:

	"Experts did not see this coming at all," said Andrew Karmen, a criminologist and professor of sociology at the John Jay College of Criminal Justice in New York. In the District and Prince George's County, homicides are down about 17 percent this year. Criminologists have different theories about why crime is down so much, although many agree that the common belief that crime is connected to the economy is false.
— Washington Post, July 20 2009

DC Homicides over 7 years

Year:		2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
Homicides:		169	181	186	144	132	108	88
Change	vs. prev. year:		+7%	+3%	-23%	-8%	-18%	-19%
	vs. 2008:				-23%	-29%	-42%	-53%

That's right: once the gun ban was gone, murder dropped by 17% — in barely more than a year! The final calculation for the year of 2009 showed a total drop in homicides of 23%. In addition to representing the saving of 42 lives, the 2009 tally of 144 homicides also represents the lowest homicide rate in the District of Columbia since 1991 (the earliest year the DC Metro PD's website lists). Additionally, if this chart at wikipedia is to be believed, it is the lowest number since at least 1986.

Just so we're clear here: In the year immediately following the dismantling of the DC gun ban, the Dodge-City / OK-Corral / Blood-In-The-Streets predictions of gun grabbers DID NOT HAPPEN. Instead, the homicide rate immediately plummeted to its lowest point in at least 23 years!

In case you're wondering, by 2012, the homicide rate in the District of Columbia had been more than cut in half, down to 88 cases, the lowest it had been since 1964.

See also

• More Guns, Less Crime
• Myths about guns and crime prevention
• Myth:Repealing gun laws is bad

References

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